BETTING SYSTEMS exist for a long time already. Usually these BETTING SYSTEMS are planned moves with which we try to increase the probability for a win. They are the root to be used for answering the questions: “How to bet?”, “When to bet?”, “When to stop betting?”. Here we have a composition of roles and tools that can be used by the gambler for increasing the probability for success and respectively profit.
We can classify the BETTING SYSTEMS in two groups:
- Strategies for betting with a bigger probability for success, but a smaller profit
- Strategies for betting with a bigger profit, but a lower probability for success
In all cases it must be clear that there is no such a strategy or a system, which can guarantee an absolute success if the result of an event can not be guessed or predicted during the time, which is set for a particular strategy. There are a few well known strategies for money management, which are often used by the gamblers: The Martingale, The Order of numbers, The Kelly criterion, etc.
Martingale
Martingale is one of the most famous and best known strategies for management of the “Bank” (the money set for betting). Theoretically infallible, this strategy requires a very big ”Bank”, the return is low, using it you can predict badly and you can still gain profit.
How does the Martingale strategy work:
You start with a bet of one unit and an odd higher or equal to 2.00. If you win your next bet is equal to the first one, but if you lose your next bet is the doubled first one. Every time you lose you double your last bet. Finally you should predict correctly the final score of a game and then you recoup your losses from all your lost bets and in addition you gain profit equal to your initial bet. Then you start from the beginning.
The Martingale principle:
1 – 2 – 4 – 8 – 16 – 32 – 64 ....
No doubt this is a fantastic strategy if you have unlimited funds, steel nerves and cool mind. Remember that after seven lost bets the next one should be 128 units but the chance for a success is still the same as it was at the first bet.
The wide spread opinion is that the Martingale strategy is not a good strategy for the money management of the average gambler because of the big progression of stakes.
The order of numbers is unlike the Martingale. As the Martingale can quickly return your bets with a profit, the Order of numbers is doing this slower, but it prevents you from the avalanche like increase of your stakes.
Compared to the Martingale, this system gives you more opportunities because you can calculate your bets in a more satisfactory manner. The inconvenience here is that you should write down numbers on a sheet of paper or a computer file and you should add numbers when you lose or strike out (delete) numbers when you win. Besides you should have a better control over your bets. Let we see what is this system about:
First of all you should decide how much you want to win – let we say € 1 000. After this you should decide how much time will it take to you to achieve your goal. This is the hardest part, as when you win you should remove the first and the last number in the row, and when you lose you should add one.
As a result of this you should try to calculate the average probability to win with a single sign. If you want to bet on matches with odds around 2.00, then, let we say that the probability of winning is about 40%. It is much better to underestimate than to overestimate your chances. If overestimate them you will have to recover by increasing the stakes, and exactly this action is very unpleasant if you enter a negative consecution.
Let us imagine € 1 000, distributed to 20 wins by € 50 and let us calculate how much time will you need for winning € 1 000, having a 40% rate at an average odd of 2.00 (a 50% chance means that you are equally laid with the bookmaker).
With a 40% chance of a correct prediction of an event with an odd 2.00 you will loose 60% of your picks. This way you usually loose 50% more often than you win (60/40). In case of a success you should remove two numbers from your sheet (the first and the last number) In case of a loss you should add a number at the end of the row. A sample sheet would look like this:
50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
How to estimate the first stake?
As we explained earlier in case of a success you will remove the first and the last numbers of the row. 50 + 50 = 100. For winning € 100 you should settle a stake which would bring you net profit of € 100. If the odd is 2.00 you should bet € 100. If the odd is 1.50 you should bet € 200. If the odd is 1.75 you should bet € 133.33. The formula for calculation of the stake is:
The stakes for your next picks should be calculated the same way. If first time you have settled a bet of € 125 at an odd of 1.80 and you have lost, you should write down 125 at the end of the row. Your next bet should constitute the sum of the first and the last number of the row divided by the difference of the odd and one: . Of course you replace the Odd with the actual one for the pick you have chosen. If you win you shold remove the first and the last number in the row and then start from the beginning with .
Even though this strategy doesn’t consist of a uncontrolled progression of the stakes it is still as dangerous as the Martingale. If you enter a negative consecution things can easily go out of control. That is why the calculations before start of betting are crucial. Before starting this system you should try it for a certain period of about a month. This is how you will study the strategy and will realize the importance of modesty when you estimate your capabilities to make predictions correctly.
